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We talk about energy with an analysis on the XLE …. also following a series of testimonies that you find by watching this CNBC video


The interview talks about a low compared to the SP500 that hasn’t been seen since 1931: a low to buy? a contrarian strategy is used here and these kinds of extremes are particularly monitored. Let’s be clear: it is not enough that the ratio between XLE / SP500 is at the lowest of the last 80 years but there must be other elements to support an accumulation thesis. One of these reasons is purely technical: the  index is building a double bottom on the monthly charts that I really like and with an extremely depressed sentiment. Then we have the seasonality: the ideal time to buy is approaching: here is a complete chart of Seasonax that gives me the seasonality of the last 20 years (excluding 2019 and 2020 as they are conditioned by extreme events). As can be seen from now until spring, the returns were positive with marginal negative returns

here the seasonality of the XLE in question: the favorable phase is ahead of us

All this to reiterate the approach for the coming months: a progressive accumulation on the XLE or on the stocks that compose it (HAL, SLB, COP, XOM etc) I consider it necessary and appropriate
If not in these phases … when?

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