WHAT I LIKE AND WHAT I DON’T LIKE

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There are many technical situations…

that I like (bullish) and many that I don’t like (bearish). Let’s try to sort it out. What I like:

  • Commodities in general – I see soft commodities in a significant reversal (BG + MOS) that suggests a possible impact on inflation (upward).
  • The rise in commodities (visible on the weekly chart) is driven by the OIL sector (XLE + OIH), with several recently signaled stocks like MRO, HAL, BKR, COP, PXD, AR, SLB, APA, MPC, OXY, etc.
  • I like the gold sector (stocks) that seems to repeat past patterns (see chart) and is holding the indicated level for a long time.
  • I like Chinese stocks that had a very favorable day yesterday, coinciding with a rise in the Yuan (especially against USD), which, in my opinion, is the necessary ingredient to support the change in trend.

What I don’t like:

  • Everything related to US tech, especially the Big 7, after the quarterly reports of NFLX and TSLA, and while awaiting those of other big companies (for example, the chart of META is already deteriorating, and I am curious about AAPL, a true signal in this phase).

  • I don’t like the momentum, sentiment, and internals indicators of SP500 & QQQ, which show signs of exhaustion and are potentially on the verge of a deeper bearish reversal.

CONCLUSION: I’m bullish on the sectors I like (energy, stocks, gold/silver socks, commodities in general, Chinese stocks) while I’m bearish on US tech and related indices. Attention to the USD exchange especially with the Yuan for Chinese stocks. Rising rates could curb some commodities (gold/silver stocks) but – as written recently – the next few years will favor investments related to commodities and emerging markets rather than what has gone well in the last 15 years (from 2008 to 2023)

The long cycle (15 years) of commodities has just begun.

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